In what is clearly an above average year for the tropics, our 13th named storm has formed this afternoon. According to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Tropical Storm Matthew has formed in the Caribbean.

Matthew currently has maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour, and is located about 200 miles south of Jamaica, at 14.0°N 76.9°W. It is moving west as 16 miles per hour, and is forecast to become Hurricane Matthew within the next 72 hours. Computer models are pretty much all over the place on this system, however, the National Hurricane Center has issued their best guess as to a projected path for the storm. They have Tropical Storm Mathew continuing towards Central America over the next couple days. By Saturday morning it should be somewhere along the northern coast of Honduras. It will then start to turn towards the Northwest, likely affecting Belize on Sunday. From there, the projected path has Matthew turning north and than NNE, skirting the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The long term forecast for Matthew could take it anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico, or even completely miss the Gulf Coast altogether. Anyone along the Gulf Coast, from Mexico to Florida needs to pay particular attention to the NHC forecasts over the next several days. We are getting into the latter part of hurricane season, meaning that there will likely be systems forming closer to home, many of which could affect states along the Gulf Coast.